Friends, colleagues,
With the Israeli cabinet vote of approval due today, the Israel-Hamas ceasefire-hostage deal will be officially signed, sealed, dusted and settled. But one main question is on the minds of Israelis and Palestinians: how long will it last?
The initial 42-day first phase of the ceasefire calls for Hamas to release 33 of the 98 remaining Israeli hostages over six weeks in return for a suspension of hostilities, partial withdrawal of Israeli military forces from population centers, the return of Palestinians to their homes in Gaza City and the north, the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, and the influx of 600 daily trucks of aid into Gaza.
But mistrust, wariness, and ongoing deadly strikes on Gaza have made many Israelis and Palestinians conclude that the ceasefire is a temporary reprieve.
From talking with people in Tel Aviv and from Gaza, few Israeli hostage families or Gazans under missile strikes dare to hope that the ceasefire will last past its first six-week phase. They have good reasons to doubt.
Hope may spring eternal, but fear and cynicism in this Gaza War have proven to be a never-ending spring.
-Taylor
May 2024 Redux
The agreed-upon ceasefire deal, a copy of which I received on Wednesday, is practically a carbon copy of the agreement the Biden Administration proposed and tried to get both sides to agree to in May 2024.
Based on building trust with staggered Israeli hostage and Palestinian prisoner releases, the ceasefire is supposed to slowly move from a suspension of hostilities to a more permanent ceasefire, the rebuilding of Gaza and a post-Hamas government.
Yet the ceasefire deal also inherits the 2024 deal’s fundamental flaw: trying to be two separate agreements for two separate parties. Israel sees the agreement as a hostage deal—not a pledge to end the war. Hamas sees it as an indefinite ceasefire. The agreement tries to straddle both realities, and sets up many pitfalls for it to unravel.
Eyes On Phase Two
The most contentious issues of the ceasefire agreement are pushed to phase two. Under the deal, Israel and Hamas are to start negotiating for the second phase by the sixteenth day of the ceasefire, February 3.
This second phase entails a full cessation of hostilities; the start of a “complete withdrawal” of Israeli forces from Gaza; the return of the remaining 65 Israeli hostages, (mainly military-aged men); and the release of hundreds more Palestinian prisoners.
As part of the second phase, Israel is supposed to completely evacuate its forces from the Philadelphi corridor running along Gaza’s border with Egypt by Day 50. Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu insists Israel maintain control over the corridor to seal off the strip, while Hamas demands full Israeli withdrawal.
Phase three calls for Hamas to return the remains of deceased Israeli hostages and the start of the rebuilding of Gaza.
The prospect of completely withdrawing military forces from Gaza while Hamas retains fighting forces is a red-line for Israel.
Already, pressure is mounting on Netanyahu from the right, including coalition member Religious Zionism party and even within his own Likud party, for guarantees the war will continue after the ceasefire.
Hamas, meanwhile, will insist on Israeli withdrawal from the critical Philadelphi corridor, and, in the wake of Netanyahu coalition partners’ statements, look for further guarantees of a lasting ceasefire before it hands over the remaining Israeli hostages.
An impasse over the post-war governance in Gaza is also set to snag the next two phases of the ceasefire.
An Egypt-brokered solution for a new post-Hamas governing committee has been approved by Hamas but turned down by the Palestinian Authority and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation. The Authority wants to rule the Gaza Strip alone; due to Hamas’ ongoing military presence and cadres in Gaza, it cannot without the movement’s tact permission.
This impasse leaves a weakened but potent Hamas as the defacto ruling entity in Gaza, a red-line for Israel and added impetus for it to continue its war.
Which is why few expect the current Israeli government to seriously pursue talks for the second phase of the ceasefire, nor for Hamas to provide clarity on the fate of the unreleased hostages.
What I'm Hearing
US and Qatari officials are hoping that once Israeli hostages are returned to their families, displaced Gazans return to their homes in Gaza City and northern Gaza, and aid floods into the Strip, public pressure on both the Israeli government and Hamas to continue the ceasefire will be "unstoppable."
They hope a new mechanism of American, Qatari and Egyptian officials monitoring and following up on the ceasefire will address issues as they arise, prevent the ceasefire from unravelling, and help push both sides to launch good-faith talks for phase two.
What I'm Watching
American pressure on Israel under the Trump Administration will remain for the duration of the first phase of the ceasefire—but will it keep up pressure on Israel to enter talks and transition to phase two of the deal?
The answer may be the difference in making this ceasefire a pause in fighting or a more permanent peace.
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