Friends,
War has returned to Gaza.
After weeks of Israel refusing to enter talks on the second phase of the ceasefire, and days since Hamas rejected an American temporary “bridge proposal,” the Israel-Hamas war has resumed.
It is a return to of conflict that has been given a green light from the White House, with the Administration saying President Trump “fully supports” Israel’s actions and accuses Hamas of “choosing to play games”.
From Tuesday to Thursday, Israeli strikes on Gaza had killed more than 500 people, including 200 children. My The Christian Science Monitor colleague Ghada Abdulfattah captured Gazans’ feeling of abandonment in her recent piece from Gaza.
On Thursday, after two days of calling on the international community to intervene, Hamas began striking back, launching missiles into central Israel for the first time in months. Meanwhile, Israel resumed ground operations in northern Gaza, and threatened to annex parts of the Strip unless Hamas releases all hostages.
The Israel-Hamas war has returned.
But is this fighting a negotiation tactic or the start of Israel’s forever war?
How long can Israel continue the war?
As war returned, tens of thousands of protesters were in the streets in Israel, refusing both the return to war and Netanyahu’s autocratic power-grab.
As my former colleague Neri Zelber wrote for the Financial Times, there is a sense of wariness among Israeli reservists who can no longer put lives, jobs and families on hold.
Polls show 60% of Israelis want Netanyahu to strike a deal to return the remaining hostages. But Netanyahu’s hardline, far-right coalition partners do not want the war to end—and with the return of extremist rightwing cabinet minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, Netanyahu has made it clear that the survival of his government is his priority over returning hostages.
The return to war comes as Netanyahu held a constitutionally illegal vote to fire the head of Shen Bet, the internal intelligence services, as it investigated corruption within his cabinet. He is sparring with the country’s attorney general, is refusing to recognize court orders, and undoing Israel’s parliamentary democracy.
Netanyahu is engaging in two separate battles of wills: one against Hamas, the other against Israeli institutions and large swathes of the public.
Netanyahu could continue the war indefinitely. With Trump’s open support, the only potential development stopping the conflict from becoming a forever war is a Netanyahu loss on the domestic front.
How long can Hamas withhold?
One major factor as to how long the war will continue is Hamas’ capabilities and resolve. It remains unclear how much manpower Hamas retains, although independent estimates place its fighters at around 20,000. Hamas’ rocket stockpile, however, is reportedly extremely limited and dwindling.
With Hamas unwilling to return all hostages without gains in return, this raises the prospect of a brutal guerilla warfare and insurgency against returning Israeli ground troops.
Hamas says it has not withdrawn from negotiations and is still discussing Witkoff’s proposal. On Friday, the movement said is discussing the Trump Administration bridge plan “and all other suggested ideas to achieve an exchange agreement that ensures the release of prisoners, ends the war, and guarantees the withdrawal from Gaza.”
Hamas has also endorsed the Arab plan for Gaza, which would see Hamas surrender control of the coastal Strip, and bring in the Palestinian Authority and a new security force to govern Gaza and oversee reconstruction.
Yet Netanyahu, apparently with Trump’s backing, is bent on war. Israel on Friday threatened to annex swathes of Gaza unless Hamas releases all the remaining hostages. It remains to be seen who will submit in this battle of wills—and if a new, temporary agreement can be reached.
What I’m Hearing
The ability for Arab states to push for an end the fighting is limited—and limited further by the Trump Administration’s vocal support of the resumed Israeli military offensive.
As Hamas is discussing Witkoff’s bridge proposal, Arab states are reportedly pressuring Hamas to reach a new agreement that both releases Israeli hostages and takes steps towards the implementation of the Arab plan by inviting in the Palestinian Authority and "temporarily" demobilizing its armed wing as a good-faith measure.
For Gazans, hope and a sense of normalcy has been ripped away. Hundreds of thousands of people seek shelter from the bombs, wondering if it will ever end. Palestinians in Gaza say they feel increasingly abandoned by the international community, doomed to relive their war-torn lives.
What I’m Writing
You can catch up on my recent in-depth analyses on Substack, with my most recent piece – The Jihadist Who Would Be Syria’s President: Ahmed al Sharaa’s 100-Day Report Card.
Last week, The Wilson Center published my analysis on the impact of US sanctions on Syria’s delicate security situation.
To learn more about the Arab plan for Gaza, read my recent report in The Christian Science Monitor.
Visit thetaylorluck.com for my latest stories and reports.
The contents of this newsletter do not reflect the views of Taylor Luck's employers or affiliated organizations.
