Friends,
Syria has seen wild swings this week: an insurgency, sectarian violence and hopeful milestones for inclusion, pluralism and democracy.
First, last weekend, an Assadist insurgency on the northwest coast sparked a wave of revenge attacks by militias aligned to the government against the Alawite community, leading to the deaths of more than 800 civilians.
I spoke to the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s Andrew West this week about the impact of the violence and its implications for the future of Syria.
Then, an important turning-point happened on Tuesday: an agreement between the interim government and the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) for its integration into the government and military.
As if the week did not have enough twists and turns, on Thursday a committee presented to interim president Ahmed Al Sharaa the constitutional framework for the country.
The landmark constitutional declaration guarantees freedom of expression and the media, an independent judiciary, a separation of powers, and the ability of a people’s assembly, or parliament, to remove the president.
With all these rapid developments, now is a time to break down the impact, implications, and hope for progress in Syria in the weeks and months ahead.
-Taylor
What I am Hearing: the Syrian Government has a Jihadist Problem
What started as coordinated bloody attacks by Assadist supporters on interim government patrols and security checkpoints on last Thursday, March 6, quickly devolved into massacres and the summary execution of civilians.
From March 6-10, Assadists killed 211 civilians and 173 members of the interim Syrian government security, police and military. Government aligned forces, many of whom fall under the government’s umbrella but are not directly under ruling Hayat Tahrir al Sham’s (HTS) control, killed at least 420 civilians and unarmed fighters- including 49 women and 39 children, according to the Syrian Human Rights Network.
Alawite residents of Syria’s northwest coast told us at The Christian Science Monitor that those carrying out extrajudicial killings were not just random militants, but were security services acting on behalf of the interim government.
The bloodshed proved two things.
First: the remnants of the Assad regime have not been neutralized. There must be efforts to both bring the worst perpetrators of crimes against humanity to justice while also engaging and peacefully integrating the Alawite community into the new Syria.
And second: the violence showed that the interim government has a jihadist problem.
Hardline and extremist fighters, both foreign and Syrian, ideologically-driven, remain under the umbrella of the interim government but represent a challenge to the country’s long-term stability and civil peace.
In the weeks preceding the insurgency and revenge attacks, the interim government withdrew foreign fighters and hardline members from checkpoints and population centers following complaints from citizens, particularly members of the Alawite and Christian minorities.
However, the ability of these fighters and armed groups aligned to the government to quickly reach the coast and carry out massacres shows the government has yet to rein in these hardline forces.
Mr. Sharaa has called for national unity and launched two independent committees to maintain civil peace, investigate the abuses and refer violators to the courts.
Whether and how the Syrian government brings perpetrators to justice will have huge implications for Syria’s long-term stability and the success of transitional justice.
What I am Watching: Syria’s Progress
One of the developments I am watching closely is the landmark agreement between the Syrian government and the SDF.
This week’s surprise SDF-Syrian interim government agreement is critical not only because it ensures the country’s territorial integrity at a time Israel is pushing deeper in southern Syria; it also prevents a pretext for military intervention by regional powers—particularly Turkey.
The agreement also gives the Syrian government to access gas and oil reserves in Northeast Syria which, although it represents a fraction of the country’s needs, will help ease the country’s energy crisis.
The merger also bodes well for a united fight against ISIS remnants in eastern Syria and facilitates a rapid drawdown of US troops if and when the Trump Administration chooses to do so.
Another positive turning-point: the constitutional declaration.
The declared constitution, drafted by a committee of experts and signed by Mr. Sharaa on Thursday, calls for an independent judiciary, places legislative authority solely in the people’s assembly, and creates a separation of powers of the three branches of government.
Perhaps critically, the constitution includes an article allowing the people’s assembly to remove the president.
The constitution includes a special chapter on freedoms and rights, ranging from property rights to media freedoms, enshrining women’s right to education, political activity and participation in the workforce.
The constitutional declaration states that Syria will be under a 5-year transitional period led by Ahmed al Sharaa and his HTS-dominated government.
Yet one clause may leave this transition period open to abuse: the president will retain the right to declare a state of emergency.
Another clause that have some concerned states that Islamic jurisprudence will be "the main source" of legislation.
Who I’m Reading
There are several excellent Syria experts chronicling the country’s rapidly-changing post-revolution transition.
First off, you can find my own Substack here.
However, for Syria, I highly suggest the following:
Charles Lister’s Syria Weekly
Aaron Y. Zelin’s Jihadology and Diary of the Syrian Transition
The Financial Times had an excellent profile of former jihadist and current Syrian president Ahmed Al Sharaa
And finally, a recommendation for non-Middle East reading. Shadi Hamid’s thought-provoking, and at times contrarian, newsletter has been rebranded as The Agonist. Agonism is a political philosophy which calls for resolving conflicts peacefully in the political sphere. Hamid’s writing on the future of democracy, and The Agonist, is well worth your time.
Visit thetaylorluck.com for my latest stories and reports.
The contents of this newsletter do not reflect the views of Taylor Luck's employers or affiliated organizations.
