What Does 2026 Hold for the Middle East?
If the first 10 days of the year are any indicator, quite a lot. Hopes and risks are at every corner.
After a year of proving their power as a united diplomatic bloc, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are deepening an internal rift over Yemen, Somalia and Sudan, that some Gulf observers are calling “a divorce.” The spat is threatening Gulf unity and pitting the Arab world’s two greatest powers against each other.
Just as Syria and Israel near a record security and peace agreement, violence has flared up between Kurdish forces and the Syrian government in Aleppo, tearing their previous tense peace.
The Lebanese government says it is disarming Hezbollah, as Israel plans renewed strikes on the movement.
Popular protests over a currency freefall in Iran are threatening to bring down a brittle regime and bring a new dawn to Iranians. Yet a cornered, pressured and paranoid Tehran may launch a serious of regional strikes to preempt any potential US-Israeli military action.
Trends I am Watching in 2026
There are the four major Middle East trends I am following closely this year:
The New Middle East: Integration vs Competition
Despite the occasional flareups, the Middle East is a region on the path towards integration and cooperation. Arab Gulf states, their Arab allies, and Turkey have come to an agreement on supporting neighboring states rather than dividing them up into cantons. These Middle East powers are pursuing economic cooperation and dialogue with their rivals, including Iran, in a bid to share the region. In this new order, stability and economic opportunity are the north stars guiding Ankara, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and beyond—a new wave of thinking that is bolstering Syria and a dynamic Iraq and Lebanon desperately want to be part of.
A major test this year will be whether Middle East states continue to find peaceful ways to work out their differences and compete for influence as this new order takes shape—or whether they will return to proxy conflicts and military confrontation.
Will Gaza ever see peace?
Gaza is currently stuck in a purgatory, neither in peace nor fully at war. Despite the Trump Administration’s intention to move to the second phase of October’s ceasefire, the main conditions of the first phase have not been met: aid trucks are not being let in, reconstruction has not occurred, Israel has not withdrawn from 50% of the enclave. The question of governing and rebuilding the Strip are many. Will the Bord of Peace and incoming technocratic committee be free to govern Gaza or will they be stymied by Israeli restrictions? Will Gazans buy into a foreign entity running their affairs? There also remains the question of if and how Hamas will disarm and relinquish control of the coastal strip—and what forces may fill that vacuum if they do. The key to all these questions may be the Palestinian Authority and the Netanyahu government’s willingness to allow it to play a role in the besieged and war-torn Strip. So far the Israeli government is blocking any Authority role in Gaza—condemning Gaza to a future of misery and delayed reconstruction.
Whither Iran?
Even should the current protests fail to overthrow the theocratic regime, a weakened Iran will likely look inwards to consolidate its control at home —shrinking its regional influence and cutting back support for its proxies abroad. The end of Iran’s regional hegemony will open up new opportunities for states to reassert themselves and improve living conditions in countries where its proxies held sway. With Iran on the backfoot, can Arab states and the US sway Iraq away from pro-Iran militias and leaders? Can the Lebanese government reassert its sovereignty? Even should the Islamic Republic remain in power, the restructuring of the Middle East may take on a rapid new phase in 2026.
Israel: partner for peace or forever wars
Also hanging over the Middle East is the looming October Israeli elections the potential steps Benjamin Netanyahu may take to secure a win at the ballot box. Last year saw Israel strike Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Qatar and Iran. Where might Netanyahu strike this year? Despite Israel’s depleted and weary army reserves, the Israeli government sees threats on all its borders and has been reluctant to pursue normalization with its neighbors. Despite its tough rhetoric, Saudi Arabia is willing to extend its hand for normalization if Israel curbs its extremist settlers and makes a symbolic but solid step towards a two-state solution—an impossibility with the current makeup of the Israeli government. Could this year’s elections change the government’s dynamics and make integration between Israel, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arab world possible? Or will Israel continue its war-first path as the “super-Sparta” Netanyahu envisions?
What We are Working On at The Christian Science Monitor
For 2026, we at the CS Monitor are working on a special series on the historic shifts happening across the Middle East. The multimedia series will chart peoples and nations in flux, as geopolitics shift underneath their feet. It will include groundbreaking reporting from Gaza to Tel Aviv, Damascus to Baghdad and beyond. I am excited to share more with you as our project progresses.
Q&A
Have any burning questions about the Middle East? Want me to dig into a subject overlooked by the headlines? Email me your questions! Send your questions via email to thetaylorluck@gmail.com or via Substack, and I will answer them in the next MEM in mid-January.
All the best,
-Taylor
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