An Impending US-Iran War: How We Got Here, What Happens Next
We are rapidly approaching the eve of a US-Iran war. The repercussions will be far-reaching.
Unlike the June 2025 American-Israeli war with Iran, which lasted 12 days, this war will be longer and less predictable. The gloves will be off. Iran will not show restraint.
US military bases across the Arab world will be targets; potentially, American diplomatic missions and other assets in the region may be targeted too.
Should war break out, American soldiers will be killed; the Iranian regime may face collapse.
Why Talks Are Failing
How did we get here?
Perhaps it is best to contrast the US-Iran talks with those talks brokered by the US between Hamas and Israel—both mediated by the same man, Steve Witkoff.
After weeks of intransigence, in October 2025 Hamas was able to give something that Witkoff and Trump could take as a win: releasing all Israeli hostages without complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, a vague agreement about disarming, and allowing a new government to enter and govern Gaza.
The Iranian regime, distrustful, defiant, and possibly suicidal, has refused to give the White House anything similar it could spin as a concession.
With Hamas, the Trump Administration took vague wording and rushed an announcement that the Israel-Hamas war had ended, outflanking Netanyahu by declaring that a ceasefire, and peace deal, had been struck.
In two rounds of talks, Iran has shown none of Hamas’ flexibility.
According to sources, the Trump Administration is willing to call off strikes and hail a ‘deal of the century’, should Iran make slightly more commitments than it did in the JCPOA: vague wording about forgoing uranium enrichment, stricter inspections, a written pledge that it would not pursue a nuclear weapon, minor restrictions on its ballistic missile program.
Unlike Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who keeps moving the goalposts on what Iran needs to do to avoid a strike, the Trump Administration would reportedly have happily taken a deal that left Iran’s ballistic missile program and proxy network across the region largely untouched.
Such a scenario would have left Tehran with both deterrence against future Israeli attacks (ballistic missiles) and influence beyond its borders (proxies) to meddle in local politics and extract wealth from Iraq and Lebanon.
The deal would have lifted crippling sanctions, pumped billions into Tehran, provided an economic lifeline to the regime and eased pressure from its citizens—who rose up en mass in January over prices and a currency freefall.
In other words, a nuclear deal would have ensured the Iranian regime’s survival, allowed it to save some face, improved life for Iranian citizens, and kept some deterrence intact.
While Iranian and American negotiators on Tuesday agreed to “guiding principles" that will frame efforts to resolve the dispute around Tehran's nuclear program, Iran refused to give any pledges or use any language that Trump could hold up to show that pressure and diplomacy are working.
Even Vice President JD Vance, who is against a costly war and is preaching diplomacy, admitted that after the most recent talks in Geneva Iran is not willing to acknowledge President Trump’s “red lines” on a nuclear weapon.
Iran Ready to Risk It All
This is because emotions and past betrayals govern actions in Tehran.
In 2018, President Trump famously withdrew the US from the JCPOA treaty—itself seen as a huge concession and leap of faith by the Iranian regime.
Only last year, the US tore up negotiations and conducted airstrikes on Iran—right when negotiators were set to meet.
Iran showed restraint post October 7 2023 and chose not to intervene on Hamas’ behalf. It watched as Israel beat back and uprooted its proxies in Lebanon, lost its patron Bashar Al Assad, and saw key allies such as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas’ Ismael Haniyah assassinated—the latter on its own soil.
Amid the current round of negotiations come as Trump crows that Iranian regime change is “the best thing that could happen”—deepening a feeling that Iran will be targeted no matter what it does.
With supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei nearing his deathbed, and devout followers indoctrinated with martyrdom ideology—many of whom took part in a mass killing of up to 20,000 of their own citizens last month—the Iranian regime is now willing to bring the temple down over their own heads and the rest of the region.
What Happens Next?
Should President Trump order strikes on Iran, Iran’s retaliation will likely hit US bases in the region of which there are many: Al Udeid base in Qatar, multiple bases in Jordan, and the Naval Support Activity naval base in Bahrain.
Unlike June 2025,the US will target regime heads—including Khamenei himself—and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
A global energy crisis may quickly follow.
Oil prices will jump as supplies will be reduced. Not only will the fighting close the Straits of Hormuz—the tiny passage through which one-fifth of the world’s gas and oil supplies run through—Iran may also strike Saudi oil facilities if it intends to inflict as much economic pain on the West as possible.
Global shipping will be disrupted.
Despite intense Arab diplomacy with Tehran, and the refusal of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to allow their airspace to be used in the war, Iran could target Washington’s Arab allies in revenge.
Iranian missiles, with primitive guidance systems, may hit heavily populated civilian areas in Arab states.
Iraq’s pro-Iran militias may target Israel and Jordan, dragging Iraq into conflict at a time when the country has been emerging out from the shadow of war and occupation.
For the states caught in the crossfire, the weekslong war will also incur heavy costs to their economies. The airspace above the Gulf and Levant will be closed.
Ramadan Umrah visits, Eid travel, and other key movers of Middle East economies will grind to a halt.
The peak tourism season for Jordan and Egypt (March and April), will all but be cancelled, removing a key pillar of both countries’ economies.
The costs of basic goods for import-reliant Arab countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and even the Gulf, will skyrocket. The price of goods in the US, and inflation writ large, will also likely rise.
There is an outside, sliver-of-a-chance that diplomacy may still prevail. America has skeptically said it would allow the Iranians to come back with a proposal by the end of February.
But unless Iran dramatically shifts its world-view and learns to speak President Trump’s language, it appears the America First president will pull the trigger on the costliest Middle East war since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
For Further Reading
Read my latest Substack post on what the loss of The Washington Post’s foreign desk means for the Middle East. The Post’s foreign reporting will sorely be missed in the impending US-Iran war.
Follow The Christian Science Monitor's Iran coverage, including this excellent piece this by Scott Peterson on how the Iranian regime’s killing of protestors has torn up Iran’s social contract.
For more on Iran's internal dynamics, follow Holly Dagres' The Iranist newsletter.
Also: The Christian Science Monitor App has now dropped! Available both in Apple Store and Google Play.
Consider supporting Monitor journalism and our excellent coverage of Iran, the Middle East, and the rest of the world. Or: sign up for CS Monitor’s free newsletter.
All the best,
-Taylor
Visit thetaylorluck.com for my latest stories and reports.
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