US STRIKES IRAN, REGIONAL WAR BEGINS
The US has launched a war of choice with Iran.
President Trump declared early this morning a war of regime change in Tehran, prepping the American public for US military casualties.
The US launched a series of strikes across Iran, from Tehran to Qom to Isfahan, targeting the Iranian presidential palace, nuclear sites and missile production facilities.
After a series of early morning US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Iranian missiles are now raining down on Israel, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE, Kuwait and Jordan—with hundreds of more strikes likely on American military bases and allies in the Middle East in the hours and days to come.
Loud explosions are rattling my office in Amman as I type this.
Iran promised to internationalize this conflict and hit each of America’s allies in the Middle East—and is following through on its response. American interceptors deployed in the region, the Jordanian Airforce and Israeli air defenses have been successful in knocking down Iranian missiles, but it remains unclear for how long defense capabilities can maintain the Iranian barrage.
Why has the US chosen a war with Iran when negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program saw progress and breakthroughs?
In his post to Truth Social, President Trump cited both Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran’s past support for terror and armed proxies, and the false claim that Iranian ballistic missiles can hit Europe “could soon reach the American homeland.”
In his speech, President Trump made it clear it will be a sustained, long-term war of regime change. It is unclear whether the war will be similar to Libyan regime change—the NATO and US-led bombing campaign to force out dictator Qhadaffif, or the Iraqi regime change and the costly boots-on-the-ground invasion of Iraq in 2003.
It appears, so far, the Trump administration is leaning towards the Libya model. But Iran, 12 times the size in geography and population, with a missile arsenal unmatched in the Middle East except for Isarel, is no Libya.
Trump appeared to prep the public for American military casualties.
In his message, Trump warned “the lives of courageous American heroes may be lost and we may have casualties. That often happens in war. But we're doing this not for now, we're doing this for the future. And it is a noble mission.”
Trump also urged the Iranian people to rise up, indicating that the military strikes will take out Iranian regime heads and allow for a popular movement to take its place.
“When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”
“America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach.
But already the brunt of the pressure is being felt by America’s allies. Today Iranian rockets not only targeted US military bases in the Middle East- Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar; Al Salem Base in Kuwait; Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE; the US 5th Fleet Base in Bahrain.
Iranian missiles also targeted the capitals of Arab Gulf states, far from military targets. Iranian missiles struck or were intercepted over Doha, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, Manama, Kuwait City, and, allegedly, Amman.
Tehran, now in a fight for its survival, is trying to exact a high price- civilian as well as military- for America and its allies in the Middle East.
The Trump Administration has shown a willingness to strike and strike hard.
But does it have the preparedness and strategic depth to protect eight entire countries (Arab Gulf, Jordan and Israel) and US military and diplomatic assets from weeks of unpredictable barrages of Iranian rockets?
And, even should the Trump Admin be successful in ousting the Iranian regime, does it have a plan in place to prevent chaos and put a new regime in place?
As we enter potentially the largest regional war in decades, we have more questions than answers. But I will do my best, hour by hour, to answer these questions and your pressing queries.
To hear more from on the ground in Amman and from my sources across the region, follow my updates in my free Substack Subscribers chat. Also check your inbox for email updates. Please send along any and all questions to thetaylorluck@gmail.com.
Meanwhile, I will attempt to address the largest questions in the coming days: why now, to what end, what’s next, and at what cost for America and the Middle East?
Be well, stay safe,
-Taylor
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