US-Iran War: Where the Globalized Middle East Conflict is Heading
In its third week, the US-Iran war is throwing the global economy into turmoil, tearing up old alliances, and showing no sign of slowing.
Airspaces are closed. Shipping lanes are closed. Natural gas fields are shutting down. Energy and fuel prices are soaring. Gulf states are at war. And the US is increasingly isolated.
In Amman, like the Arab Gulf, sirens go off every few hours as American and national missile defence systems shoot down the latest batch of Iranian drones and ballistic missiles. Life is disrupted, but ongoing. But the ripple effects are being felt as far as South-East Asia and South Carolina.
We at The Christian Science Monitor have been reporting at breakneck speed. Some stand-out reports include: th is report on the impact of the war on water, how average Iranians are trying to cope between unrelenting bombing from the skies and a brutal regime on the ground, and this piece on how Ukraine is helping Arab states defend against Iranian drones.
I will try to answer some pressing questions below on where this conflict might be heading next—and when we can expect some relief.
Can the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz?
Long answer short: no.
The narrow Strait, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas runs, has been effectively closed by Iran. At its narrowest point, the two-lane cargo traffic waterway is 24 miles wide.
The US Navy alone cannot patrol the waters and escort ships. Even a broad international coalition will struggle to secure the Strait of Hormuz. In addition to mines, the main threats to shipping lines come from mainland Iran, where IRGC cells are launching missiles and drones. The fact that the US has sunk 120 Iranian ships and dozens of minesweepers has not made the waterway safer. Few countries are willing to sign up to patrol the Hormuz and bail President Trump out of the mess his war has created.
Even should the US deploy ground troops to seize Iran’s gas-rich Kharg Island or a number of disputed islands—as some Republican hawks have called for—or seize Iranian coastline, the military presence will not be enough to prevent the IRGC from firing drones and missiles at ships in the narrow Strait.
The only way the Strait can fully reopen through a ceasefire, or if the Iranian regime completely collapses and is obliterated. As the destruction of the Iranian regime is highly unlikely, as it remains stubbornly strong in the third week of leadership assassinations and bombing, a formal end to hostilities is the only pathway to ending this energy crisis.
Will Gulf states join the war?
Long answer short: not yet. But they are increasingly being pushed toward offensive action.
Gulf states are not willing to join a war they didn’t start and can’t control. But Iran’s unrelenting targeting of their airports, energy resources, businesses, residential areas, and diplomatic missions is leaving them few options.
The UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, have practiced incredible restraint, insisting on diplomacy even as Iran pummels their cities and oil and gas fields—while warning that they reserve the right to strike back.
There is distrust over Washington’s unwillingness or inability to protect its Gulf allies, while it focuses on protecting Israel instead. Being on the frontlines, and by escalating the war further, Gulf states know they will be hit the hardest, have the most to lose, and the least ability to influence the direction of the war.
The second barrier to Gulf states joining the war effort is Israel. Gulf states see the Benjamin BNetanyahu government as attempting to sow chaos accross the Middle East to ensure Israeli military hegemony in the region. They blame Netanyahu for this war, believe Israel conspired to sabotage recent US-Iran nuclear talks, and see Israel destroying every offramp—such as assassinating Iranian negotiators—and rapidly escalating the war by targeting Iranian oil refineries and gas fields.
However, Gulf states’ calculation of diplomacy vs. military response is rapidly shifting.
In one turning point on Tuesday, Iran launched salvos of rockets into Riyadh near a hotel where the foreign ministers of a dozen Arab states and Turkey were meeting to discuss the war and a united response. Sources say Iran was alerted ahead of time to the meeting in order to avoid a missile strike—yet Iran went ahead and targeted them anyway.
“The targeting of Riyadh while a number of diplomats are meeting, I cannot see as coincidental,” Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud told attendees and the press, amid the boom of interceptors taking out Iranian missiles over the hotel where they were gathering.
“And I think that is the clearest signal of how Iran feels about diplomacy. It doesn’t believe in talking to its neighbors; it tries to pressure its neighbors. That is not going to work.”
“This pressure will backfire politically, morally, and certainly—we have reserved the right to take military action,” he warned, “If the time comes, the leadership of the kingdom will take the necessary decision. We will not shy away from protecting our country and our economic resources.”
A Gulf source said the UAE is also preparing military plans for a series of strikes on Iran, while allowing a “last chance for diplomacy,” but that the window is rapidly closing.
Should Iran refuse to let up its attacks on Gulf infrastructure, by next week we may see some limited military action by the UAE and Saudi Arabia to enforce their red lines with Tehran and protect their economic lifelines.
How many missiles does Iran have left? Can it keep on targeting the entire Middle East?
Israeli military estimates suggest that as of Tuesday, Iran had anywhere between 500–1,000 ballistic missiles left in its stockpile. With claims by both the US and Israel that they have taken out missile-production facilities, each missile Iran fires leaves one less in the stockpile. Israel claims that Israel-US military operations have taken out 70–80% of Iranian missile launchers. Iran has slowed its tempo of missile strikes in the last week, being very selective with its targets.
For example, Iran fired 167 missiles into the UAE on the first day of the conflict. On Thursday, the UAE received and intercepted seven ballistic missiles from Iran. Iranian missiles launched into Israel have dropped from 90 per day at the beginning of the war to 20 missiles a day this week.
However, ballistic missiles are only one part of Iran’s arsenal.
What is of greater impact, and more abundant, are Iran’s drones. Shahed drones are cheap, easy to make, more likely to evade missile defense systems, and capable of causing enough damage to take oil refineries offline or damage and close embassies and military bases.
Iran has a plentiful stockpile and, due to material support from Russia and China, can remake them easily. Drones do not require missile launchers. All Iran needs is an occasional low-tech drone strike to hold the Gulf and global markets hostage. Which is why a military solution to the US-Iran war is extremely unlikely.
When will energy prices go down?
Gas and oil prices are unlikely to fall until several weeks after this conflict ends. And that is the best-case scenario.
First, there is the damage yet to be done in this conflict. In response to America and Israel targeting Iran’s South Pars gas fields on Tuesday, Iran sent barrages of drones and missiles into both Qatar’s gas production facilities and Saudi Arabia’s gas and oil fields on Wednesday and Friday.
Not only is Iran stepping up its attacks on Gulf oil and gas production—it is attacking Gulf states’ alternative routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
In the last 48 hours, Iran has targeted the Yanbu pipeline, which carries crude from Saudi Arabia’s eastern coast (near Iran) to its western coast on the Red Sea—a bypass route through which 50% of Saudi oil is now running. Saudi Arabia successfully intercepted missiles targeting the port of Yanbu, while a drone struck an oil refinery there on Thursday. More attacks are expected as Iran is determined to disrupt this Hormuz bypass route.
Early in the war, Qatar, Kuwait Bahrain declared force majeure on several short- and mid-term contracts, essentially declaring legally that they can no longer fulfill contracts and supply gas and oil. An end to missiles and drones does not mean they can immediately resume production and transport of liquefied natural gas and oil to their customers. Getting LNG facilities back on line can take months.
QatarEnergy, Qatar’s LNG company, revealed that Iran has already wiped out 17% of Qatari gas for the next five years.
On Thursday, Qatar’s LNG company said it may have to declare force majeure on long-term contracts for up to five years of LNG supplies to Italy, Belgium, Korea, and China.
Even if the conflict ends today, citizens around the world will be feeling pain at the pump and higher heating bills for months to come. In a worst-case scenario, we may be feeling the energy crisis caused by this war for years.
Be safe, be well and be aware.
-Taylor
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