US-Iran War Goes Global: What Next, What to Read, Who to Follow
Dear friends, colleagues,
As unrelenting Iranian drones and missiles hit everywhere from Dubai to Cyprus, on its third day, a regional war between the US and Iran is quickly turning global.
Casualties are rising: three US military servicemembers were confirmed killed yesterday, 555 people—including more than 100 schoolgirls—have been reportedly killed in Iran. Three people have been killed in the UAE and nine in Israel.
As part of Iran’s retaliation over the killing of its leader Ayatollah Khamenei, drones and missiles are raining down every hour or so on Gulf states, Israel, and Amman, Jordan where I sit, hitting residential towers, five-star hotels, embassies, airports, ports, oil and gas installations and even an Amazon data center.
But the ripple effect is far greater—by design. Iran is lashing out at friend and foe alike to upend the global economy and force President Trump to stop his war.
The stock market is dropping, oil prices are surging.
Iran has struck a British military base in Cyprus and Bahrain and a French military base in Abu Dhabi. On Sunday, Iran even struck Oman, it’s last ally in the Middle East, who, up until February 26 was desperately trying to broker a nuclear deal between Iran and the US to avert this very war.
In turn, the UK said it was mobilizing jets to defend its assets and allies in the Gulf. On Monday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said France “stands ready” “to take part in the defence” of its Arab allies in the Gulf and Jordan now under the assault of Iranian missiles and drones. French President Emmanuel Macron said France would increase its military presence in the Middle East as a response.
Sources say that Arab Gulf states themselves are preparing a strategy for joint “forward-defensive” action: potentially knocking out Iranian missile and drone launchers in Iran and even targeting Iranian energy supplies.
Global Disruption
Iran’s retaliation is also upending global travel. Over this weekend, Iranian drones hit Dubai International, the world’s largest air hub, multiple times, forcing the closure of the airport.
A deadly strike forced the closure of the Abu Dhabi International airport, and strikes hit airports in Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Iraqi Kurdistan.
Thousands of flights have been cancelled, tens of thousands of passengers are stranded, and the airspace over seven countries has been closed.
The flight chaos will not just affect those flying to and from the Middle East. Emirates, the world’s largest international carrier, is grounded; so too are Qatar Airways and Etihad. Long-haul flights that pass anywhere near the Middle East will now be diverted, adding hours to journeys and raising the costs of tickets.
Due to the war, Americans and consumers across the world will soon feel pain at the pump and face higher electricity and heating bills.
Iran has targeted oil and gas infrastructure on its second and third days of the war, hitting gas terminals in the UAE and Aramco oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has threatened any ship nearing its waters and has forced a de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a tiny chokehold in the Persian Gulf through which one-fifth of the world’s gas and oil passes. Tankers and vessels have dropped anchor in the middle of the water, unable or refusing to pass through. The ability for the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar to supply crude or gas has been seriously disrupted. Qatar's LNG production has been pushed offline by the attacks.
Global shipping is already being thrown into chaos. The UAE, a key air freight transit point, has now closed its skies.
The world’s three largest container shipping lines – MSC, Maersk and CMA CGM said in separate statements they had suspended cargo services through the Gulf and other parts of the Middle East. Insurers cancelled war risk insurance for vessels moving through the Middle East.
Soon goods will become pricier—adding to inflation in America, Europe and the Middle East.
Iran hopes that its war on the global economy will force President Trump to blink and call off his war. But as of now, the Trump Administration is settling in for a weeks-long war. American security sources say the Administration is confident that the US and Israeli militaries can knock out most of Iran’s missile-launching capabilities in the coming days. President Trump has floated renewed talks, which Tehran has rejected.
With an Iranian regime stockpiling missiles and decentralizing its missile and drone launchers and units, the skies over the Middle East may remain dangerous for weeks or months to come.
What to Read
There’s a lot of news out there. Here are a few helpful pieces. Here is my wrap-up of the last two day’s regional fallout of the US-Iran War at CS Monitor. This is my take on the Gulf’s dilemma: between defence and diplomacy.
Here is a fantastic and engaging obituary of killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by Scott Peterson that says a lot about the regime the cleric-dicator shaped.
This piece by Iran expert Ali Vaez explores Trump’s Iran Gamble.
This article in Foreign Policy explores how Trump betrayed his isolationist, America First base.
This vital piece from Reuters details how the Pentagon told Congressional staffers in closed door briefings on Sunday that Iran in fact did not pose an imminent threat to the US as President Trump claimed.
This CS Monitor piece explores how President Trump is trying the impossible in Iran: acheiving regime change with no boots on the ground.
Who to Follow
From mixed messaging from an opaque Trump Administration to propaganda pushed by Iran’s supporters, it may be hard to get a clear and honest look at the nature of this war and what really is going on inside Iran. Unfortunately, I cannot recommend a single American official as a source of news or statements.
For Iran watchers and analysts to follow, I highly suggest:
Ali Vaez, Director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran Project. Follow Ali on Twitter
Holly Dagres, Washington Institute of Near East Policy expert and author of the vital newsletter The Iranist You can also follow her on Twitter and Substack.
Vali Nasr, professor at John Hopkins at Iran expert, can be followed on Twitter and Substack
For a contrarian, anti-interventionist voice, I also suggest Trita Parsi, Vice President of the Quincy Institute. He can be followed on Twitter and Substack.
You can also follow my ongoing Subscriber chat on Substack, where I am posting short updates throughout the day.
I will be writing more very soon (hopefully not from a safe room).
Until then, be safe, be well and be aware.
-Taylor
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