Friends,
As rebel forces raced across Syria and the Assad regime army collapsed and deserted, it became clear among powers gathered in Doha this weekend that Assad’s end was fait accompli.
I watched as Russia, Iran and Arab states rushed to keep up with developments—and quickly concluded that Assad was beyond saving. On Saturday Russia, Turkey and Iran agreed: Assad would leave and it was time for a transition.
Although the offensive against Assad was in the works for weeks, and Turkey and reportedly some Arab states in the loop, its rapid success was not foreseen.
What was initially a shock offensive quickly became a behind-the-scenes political transition before the rebels even reached Damascus.
But despite the international and regional deal-making, this was a victory for and by the Syrian people. For Syrians, it is a chance to feel dignity, freedom, and their worth as human beings so cruelly robbed from them by the Assad regime and overlooked by a West-led international community that ignored their self-determination.
Pundits, “experts”, and Western policymakers who refuse to see the region outside a narrow security lens are hand-wringing over what comes next after Assad’s fall. They write headlines and analyses warning of security vacuums, terrorism and theocratic dictatorships. They warn of ISIS and Kurdish-Arab splits. They point to the past in Iraq and Libya to condemn Syria’s future.
As always, there are risk factors. The path ahead is fraught with traps. But Syria 2024 is not Syria 2011.
Here are six reasons to be optimistic:
Syrian factions are united- for now
Syrian factions have quickly shown unity. HTS, the Syrian National Army, and the coalition of rebels and Free Syrian Army remnants in the south coalesced and joined forces as the pushed to oust Assad. SDF and other Kurdish militias did not clash with the Türkiye-backed SNA. All factions worked quickly and seamlessly for a transition away from Assad.
Acknowledging its controversial Al Qaeda roots, HTS went out of its way to say it will protect minorities and offered governing autonomy to Ismailii Shiite and Christian communities. Although the new interim Prime Minister and senior posts of the HTS- backed “Salvation Government” are HTS members, it has been pulling in new members from various political groups and factions. To address fears that the anti-Assad push was an Islamist offensive that would bring a tyrannical sectarian rule, it sent envoys to minority communities—and even put up Christmas trees in Aleppo. Rather than running to the regime as a protector, Christian villages welcomed the liberation—chanting around a Christmas tree “one, one, one, Syrians are all one.”
Regional, international actors united
Unlike the 2010s, when Gulf states, Iran, Russia and Türkiye (Turkey) all competed for influence in Syria and backed different factions and militias, this time regional and international actors are united.
Binding them together? A common fear of an unstable Syria and the replay of the 2010s: a security vacuum, a re-emergence of ISIS, and waves of refugees.
Here in Doha, it was quickly evident that Assad’s army could not fight and his days were numbered. Russia and Turkey were quick to agree to accept and facilitate a post-Assad era, with Russia securing some assurances from the HTS via Türkiye that its naval base can remain and will not be targeted in return for shuttling Assad out of Syria. Iran, on the back foot, also agreed on a transition in return for assurances from rebels that it could pull out its Iranian Revolutionary Guards, forces and citizens unobstructed. Türkiye, the kingmaker, which has had an ongoing dialogue with HTS for years, facilitated the rebel group’s rehabilitation on the diplomatic stage in return for pledges that it would clamp down on PKK activity.
The US special envoy for Syria was present at the talks and offered US support. A united statement from Türkiye, Russia and Iran expressed the three powers’ respect for the “aspirations of the Syrian people.”
Meanwhile, Arab states led by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan and Egypt too quickly coalesced this weekend over accepting the political transition from Assad to the rebels. Arab states hope that by quickly engaging and strengthening the interim Syria government, they can encourage returns of Syrian refugees from their countries and secure cooperation on curbing Syrian drug cartels and combatting ISIS—areas which Assad rebuffed them at every turn, despite a two-year normalization process full of carrots from Arab states.
With all the regional and international actors on board, there is no competition—as of yet—and no proxy wars pitting Syrians against each other. With regional and international actors all agreeing not to undermine or interfere, they are avoiding the factors prolonged and deepened Syria’ civil war.
Syrians are well-versed in dialogue
For more than a decade, the UN, the international community have been working with Syrians on coalition building, track II diplomacy, civil society strengthening and democracy with non-state actors and communities.
Syrians from different regions, minorities, political factions, militias and clans have been gathering around tables for more thana decade and know one another. Most importantly, they know how to talk to each other. This is in stark contrast to 2011-12 when, after decades of being turned against one another by the Assad regime, they were suddenly thrust together and then quickly transformed into competing proxies by outside powers.
A dialogue among disparate groups and discussions over Syria’s political future has been going on for years. Now, it is down for the factions, groups and civil society to finalize the final details for the new Syria. The fact they have this head start should prevent years of bickering, infighting and power vacuums—and allow the transitional government to move quickly.
UN Resolution 2254
A roadmap for a post-Assad Syria is already in place: UN Resolution 2254.
After years of talks, in 2015 the UN Security Council passed a resolution for a Syria-led political transition for an inclusive, non-sectarian democratic Syria.
The Resolution mandates a Syrian-led process under UN guidance that reforms state institutions, protects Syria’s territorial unity, facilitates return of refugees, ensures inclusivity of all groups and minorities, and sets a timeline to draft and pass a new constitution.
Türkiye, Iran, and Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, US, France, UK, Germany, and EU, have all backed calls for the Resolution’s immediate implementation.
The Resolution not only gives Syrians a roadmap, it also provides Syria’s post-Assad political project legitimacy, a framework, and a mechanism for the international community to engage with it. In other words: there is a good plan in place, and everyone knows it inside and out.
Engagement of regime holdovers
Rather than persecute the Syrian regime government or drive the Baath party underground and risk an insurgency—like the Americans in post-Saddam Iraq—Syrian rebels and the interim government are engaging the Syrian regime remnants.
Syrian rebels escorted Assad-picked prime minister Ghazi al-Jalali to a hotel for a peaceful handover of power to the Salvation Government —and are providing him with protection. Many ministry staff and police are still employed. Syrian regime soldiers, abandoned in the desert, are being transported back to their home towns and villages to reunite with their families.
On Monday, Salvation Government justice minister Shadi Al-Waisi met with Assad’s Minister of Justice Ahmed Al-Sayed to discuss reforming the ministry.
There is a push—so far—to reform, not destroy institutions and grant amnesty to former regime members if they are ready to abandon the past and accept a new, free Syria.
Fight against ISIS unobstructed
For most of the last decade, one of the unspoken obstructions factors to the fight against ISIS was the Assad regime itself. The Assad regime often handed territory over to ISIS in bids to weaken rebel advances and at times attacked rebel groups as they themselves fought ISIS. Regime control of main highways and tracts of territory limited ground forces’ ability to uproot ISIS cells.
With the Assad regime gone, the fight against ISIS remnants in the eastern desert should be less obstructed, more focused, and without pockets of territory ISIS can dubiously melt away to.
Visit thetaylorluck.com for my latest stories and reports.
The contents of this newsletter do not reflect the views of Taylor Luck's employers or affiliated organizations.
