Friends,
Today, a decades-long hypothetical scenario became a reality: America bombed Iran.
US B-2 bombers carried out strikes targeting three nuclear sites in Iran. The extent of the damage, and the setback to Iran’s nuclear program, remains unclear and subject to conjecture.
Nearly 12 hours later, governments and experts are still trying to assess the American missile strikes’ impact on the region.
Will this be a turning point plunging the Mideast into a regional war? Or will it be a return to a pre-2023 status quo, with a hobbled Iranian regime slowly rebuilding its deterrence against Israel?
Does this herald “a new Middle East” or is it just another tit-for-tat in the long-running American-Iranian enmity?
Likely, the American strikes in Iran and their fallout will be something in between.
This morning’s tactical deployment of US military force is not the paradigm shift some hardliners were hoping for. Washington did not target Iran’s supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, military personnel, or civilian areas. The Iranian regime remains in place; its grip on the country is secure.
The Trump Administration’s limiting of US strikes to nuclear facilities may allow Iran to limit its response in return.
No-one in the region is ready or eager for wider war.
As I wrote in The Christian Science Monitor, Arab states stuck in the firing line, who have the most to lose in an escalating Iran-Israel-US conflict, have become the loudest voices for peace.
In the hours since the US strikes, Gulf Arab states and Jordan issued statements expressing their concern and urging diplomacy to prevent a wider war.
What happens next?
Iran’s proxies have yet to respond. Lebanon’s Hezbollah has declined to come to Iran’s aide, stating that Iran was capable of defending itself. Iranian militias in Iraq have yet to act; some reports claim these militant groups are reluctant to jeopardize fat oil deals and invite American assassinations.
The most likely Iran-aligned group to act are the Houthis, who rule much of Yemen, and on Sunday vowed a response “soon” . They affirmed “the Republic of Yemen’s commitment to the armed forces’ declaration that they were ready to target US ships and warships in the Red Sea.”
The Houthis are likely to target Red Sea maritime traffic, particularly American naval vessels and US-flagged ships. Yet it would not represent a major departure from Houthi-American tensions prior to a May 2025 “truce” inked between the Trump Administration and the Yemeni group.
In another sign that the Red Sea will become the next battleground, on Sunday, the Iranian parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint in the Persian Gulf through which 20% of the world’s oil supply passes and a major shipping route used by thousands of vessels per day.
Initial signs indicate Iran is willing to use economic pressure—the disruption of oil and global shipping—to push back against any further Israeli or American military action on its leadership, energy infrastructure and civilian areas.
While the disruption of oil supplies will spike energy prices, and global shipping costs will rise, it is unlikely Iran’s closing of the Hormuz would meet the Trump Administration’s threshold for wider military involvement.
President Trump, Defense Sec. Pete Hegseth and other officials remained clear before and after the Iran strikes: Washington’s red-line is the targeting of US military servicemen and women, diplomats and citizens.
Unlike the Netanyahu government, the Trump Administration has gone out of its way to stress that regime change in Iran is not its goal.
“We did not attack the nation of Iran, we did not attack any civilian targets, we didn’t even attack military targets,” Vice President JD Vance told ABC on Sunday. “If the Iranians decide to expand this, than that is ultimately their decision and the President of the United States will respond in kind.”
On the Sunday talk-show circuit, Vance warned that the closing of the Hormuz would be “suicidal” for Iran’s economy. Yet for a heavily-sanctioned country with a hated regime fighting for its survival, Tehran may be willing to inflict further economic pain on its people in a bid to head off wider Israeli-American military action.
While America’s targeted strikes may fall short of plunging the US into a full-scale conflict, it could trigger an economic war that will hit households from Tehran to Tennessee.
The next 48 to 72 hours may determine whether the Iran strikes were a tactical success or a prelude to more regional pain.
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