Friends,
Iran’s axis of resistance is no more.
Bashar Al Assad is gone. Hezbollah is weakened militarily and on the backfoot politically. Militias in Iraq are cowed.
From Iraq to Syria and Lebanon, a new axis is rising to take its place: the axis of cooperation.
Unlike the network of Shiite militias and non-state actors that dominated much of the Arab world for two decades, this new axis is made of government ministers, technocrats and investors who are looking for joint projects, investments, and providing services to citizens.
Bolstered by moderate Arab Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan, this new axis forming in the Fertile Crescent is focusing on rebuilding their countries at home and ties with their neighbors abroad.
Sectarianism is out. Deal-making is in.
For two weeks in Syria, I had a front-row seat to this axis’ rise.
Kuwaiti, Saudi and Emirati investors filled Damascus hotel lobbies. Syrian government advisors—technocrats with ties to the West—are preaching free market economies, capitalism, and open societies.
Banners of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and President Trump hung from buildings and overpasses in Damascus, a sign of gratitude for the Saudi leader’s instrumental role in pushing the Trump Administration to lift sanctions on Syria.
Once the facilitator of Iranian proxies between Iraq and Lebanon, Syria is now pitching itself a West-friendly center of stability and moderation.
In Iraq too, I recently saw these moderates and pragmatists at work. The government of Mohammad Shia Sudani, overseeing a period of historic stability, is looking to make development deals across Iraq and is reaching across the aisle to Iraqis of different origins.
In statements at the Arab League summit in Baghdad last week, the Iraqi government declared its neutrality, rejected foreign interference in Arab states and called for a united Arab world.
It is a stark contrast to the Arab world of one year ago, when Iranian proxies weakened already-failed states and dragged the region into war.
Arab diplomats say this new axis is not about countering Iran, but returning sovereignty and self-determination to Arab states.
This new axis aims to rebuild states, with stronger central governments, that focus on economic prosperity and cross-border projects.
Which is why Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are rushing to stabilize Syria and engage Lebanon. The US official lifting of sanctions on Syria was not only a diplomatic win for Saudi Arabia—it cemented this new axis and ensured its near-term success.
Now the region is looking for joint opportunity, not competition. It is a phase of state-building and lifting up Arab countries ravaged by war.
As I wrote in The Christian Science Monitor, now is an opportunity to once again reunite the Arab world.
It is a historic opportunity that leaders in Arab capitals refuse to miss
What I'm Watching
I am currently watching the outreach of Arab states to the new Lebanese government. Kuwait, UAE and Saudi Arabia are reportedly set to lift bans on citizens travelling to Lebanon—opening up the possibility for investments and a return of Gulf tourists to Lebanon, previously a major source of the country's income.
So far, Jordan has been the most diplomatically active among Arab states in engaging and bolstering the nascent Lebanese government and its efforts to secure a monopoly on arms and sideline Hezbollah.
I am also watching the hobbled efforts to get aid into Gaza. The Israel and US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Fund, which controversially proposes to take aid operations away from the UN and only provide limited food in southern Gaza, is already having a rough start. Jake Wood, head of the Gaza Humanitarian Fund resigned Sunday, days before it was to begin operations, citing its inability to fulfill the principles of "humanity, neutrality, impartiality, and independence".
What I’m Hearing
France and Saudi Arabia, backed by other Arab states, are presenting a proposal to Hamas to disarm, facilitate an exodus of its remaining leaders and a transition into a political movement.
The alleged push, reported by Bloomberg, has been confirmed to me by two sources.
It is hoped that by disarming Hamas with security guarantees for Israel, the international community could get Israel to stop a renewed punishing offensive on Gaza’s major cities that is killing tens of civilians per day and pushing tens of thousands to starvation.
As of writing, Hamas reportedly still considers disarming a non-starter. Facing starvation and intensified Israeli missile strikes, hundreds of war-weary Gazans continue to protest against the war and demand Hamas’ ouster from the Strip.
Their rally cry: we want to live.
As of writing, one of the only constants in this conflict is that as long as it continues, more Gazans will die.
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