Friends,
As we enter the final days of December, a whole new Middle East is unfurling. A struggle over the future of free Syria’s new government is underway. The Iranian axis of resistance is in shatters, the so-called “Shiite crescent” that once extended from Iran to southern Lebanon, is broken.
As I wrote in The Christian Science Monitor this week, a new axis led by Turkey and Qatar is on the rise in Syria and, perhaps, beyond.
Israel and Hamas are locked in the final stages of negotiations for a ceasefire, yet the same old hang-ups are preventing a breakthrough. Serious questions remain as to what Gaza’s postwar future will be, what will happen to Palestinians in the West Bank, and what form Hamas will take post-Gaza war.
Saudi Arabia continues to tie any normalization with Israel to permanent steps to Palestinian statehood—a deal breaker for Netanyahu’s coalition partners. The Palestinian Authority is eyeing a role in Gaza and is engaging in raids and gun-battles with Palestinian militants and Hamas in refugee camps to cement its bona fides as a security partner for Israel and the West.
Then there is the biggest wildcard of them all: a new Trump Administration entering office on January 20.
January 2025 looks to be another breakneck month as the Middle East’s geopolitical tectonics continue to shift.
But as this year comes to a close, I would like to add an appeal.
For 14 months my colleague in Gaza, Ghada Abdulfattah, has acted at The Christian Science Monitor’s eyes, ears and heart in Gaza. Her home in Deir Al Balah was destroyed by Israeli shelling in October. Since then, she, her parents, siblings and one-dozen nieces and nephews have been homeless. On her behalf, we, Ghada’s colleagues, have launched a GoFundMe to raise money to help her rebuild her family home and pay for food.
I cannot send Ghada items or even help her locate life-saving medicine for her family. The only thing we can do is raise and send money. We are not making this appeal public or sharing on social media for her family’s safety—instead we are relying on word of mouth and emails.
If you, or anyone you know, would like to support a Palestinian journalist in Gaza, please consider sending them the following link to Ghada’s GoFundMe: https://gofund.me/770fe8a4
And may you have a blessed end to the year.
Your friend and colleague,
-Taylor
Turkey rising in Syria
One of the biggest geopolitical winners of Bashar Al Assad’s fall is Turkey. With multiple military bases in northern Syria, years of carefully-cultivated ties with the Syrian opposition, and the ability to jump-start Syria’s reconstruction—Ankara has emerged with the biggest sphere of influence in Syria. How will it spend its new leverage?
Reportedly, Turkey is in talks with the interim government in Damascus to establish long-term leases for its military bases—similar to Russia’s arrangement with the Al Assad regime—to render them legal and semi-permanent.
Meanwhile, Turkey is amassing its military and using the threat of force to marginalize the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which it views as a terrorist group and a threat to its national security. Ankara is pressing the interim Syrian government to exclude the SDF from the political transition.
Another area Turkey is eyeing is Syria’s reconstruction, a potential boon to the Turkish economy.
What I'm hearing
With the killing of its hardline leaders, including Yahya Sinwar in October, Hamas has become more willing to make concessions in negotiations with Israel for a ceasefire-hostages release deal.
These concessions include: agreeing to Israel retaining a military presence in Gaza in the near-term and delaying the release of big-name Palestinian political prisoners in future rounds of hostage releases.
Big hurdles still remain. One of the biggest obstacles is Hamas’ demand that Israel commits to a written agreement pledging not to renew hostilities once the ceasefire ends—in essence, a permanent ceasefire—which Israel has refused.
Israel, meanwhile, demands to retain military presence along corridors that trisect Gaza into three sections. One of Hamas’ key conditions is Israel allowing free travel of Palestinians from southern Gaza to their demolished homes in northern Gaza without any military checkpoints. This, I hear, is one of the key sticking points and the one condition Hamas has shown no willingness to soften or surrender.
What I'm watching
I am watching to see what, if any, efforts the Biden Administration will make towards the day-after plan in Gaza, Palestinian statehood, Saudi-Israeli normalization or in engaging the new Syrian government. We are in the final 30 days of the Biden presidency, the lamest days of the lame duck period. But this does not prevent the White House from making a historic move in the Middle East.
Will Biden’s team show any creativity and vision in engaging the new Syria or pushing for a day-after plan in Gaza? Will it try and seal a grand deal with Israeli-Saudi normalization and steps towards Palestinian statehood?
Given its track record, and the amount of diplomatic energy being taken up by Israel-Hamas talks, I for one will not be holding my breath.
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