Friends,
Sometimes conflicts, after years of deadlock and attrition, begin to fade into the background, away from our attention, out of sight and out of mind. We barely acknowledge their existence, like violent white noise, silent suffering frozen in time.
And then, eventually, these conflicts roar right back, taking us all by surprise.
This is what happened last week when Syrian rebels stunned the Bashar Al Assad regime and the world by capturing Syria’s second city Aleppo. After breaking a four-year stalemate, in recent days it has expanded its offensive to Hama, recapturing the vital city on Thursday. The rebels are now steaming towards Homs, overtaking an off-guard and deserting Syrian army.
Since last Friday, rebels have seized more than 200 towns and villages. The Assad regime is on the backfoot and its defensive line is broken. The Syrian army is racing to regroup, protect Damascus, and mount a counter-offensive.
Syrian rebels’ gains have reignited the hopes of many average Syrians—the very people who have been left out of the policies concerning the future of their nation. Yet with the Syrian rebel coalition showing cracks and infighting, the \jihadist ideology of lead organization HTS, and the expected Russian air campaign and counter-offensive, their victory may be short-lived.
But this week has been a reminder that no conflict is frozen, not forever. War cannot be “managed”. Conflicts cannot be neatly placed in a box, stored in a locker, and expected to obediently wait to be reopened when global powers are ready to deal with them.
There is one thing this \year has taught us: without political solutions resolving grievances, conflicts will continue, beneath the surface or violently to the fore.
Middle East conflict resolution is not a choice for global powers facing a host of challenges—it is a necessity.
Otherwise, we will be faced with worse options, more refugees, empowered extremists, and regional instability. It is better to push for a political solution today than deal with the violent consequences tomorrow.
Your friend and colleague,
-Taylor
Meet me in Doha
First off: for those of you attending the Doha Forum this weekend, please get in touch if you would like to meet up. Email me at thetaylorluck@gmail.com
Meanwhile, I hope to bring you all updates from Doha on the latest regional chatter on Israel-Hamas ceasefire tals, Syria, Gulf states, and how the Middle East is realigning for Trump 2.0
Syria War: Who to follow?
For the latest developments in Syria, and to better understand the nature of this suddenly unfrozen civil war, here are some of the top experts to follow.
These scholars have deep ties on the ground in Syria and know far more about the current conflict on the micro and macro levels than I can ever aspire to.
Dareen Khalifa, senior advisor at the International Crisis Group: Twitter
Natasha Hall, senior fellow at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS): Twitter
Haid Haid, senior fellow at Chatham House: Twitter
Hassan I. Hassan, founder of New Lines Magazine: Twitter
Charles Lister, senior fellow at Middle East Institute: Twitter
In general, follow New Lines’ coverage: Twitter
There is a great recap of the situation and what to expect by Natasha Hall on the latest episode of Pod Save the World podcast.
New Lines has a great backgrounder and Haid Haid has an analysis on the international community's failure to address the ongoing crisis in Syria and need for a political solution.
The players in Syria: Turkey
Reports are mixed over how much Turkey knew of the HTS-led rebel push and whether it gave it a green light. What is clear is that Turkey has taken advantage of the rebel offensive, advancing its own supported Syrian National Army to combat regime forces and Kurdish militias.
It is believed Ankara is using the offensive as an opportunity to press the Assad regime to finally make concessions, agree to a political resolution, and re-normalize relations with Turkey.
Iran and Hezbollah
Iran will likely try to refortify Assad and is reportedly mobilizing available Shiite militias from Iraq and Afghanistan to enter Syria—although it is yet to be seen what manpower these militias will amass. Iran sent its foreign minister to Damascus within 48 hours of the rebels’ surprise capture of Aleppo and has made clear it will not abandon Assad regime, its client state.
Hezbollah, which intervened and saved the Assad regime from collapsing in 2013-2016, is so far staying on the sidelines. Itself battered by war with Israel, facing the prospect of a ceasefire collapse and a renewed Israeli offensive, Hezbollah has indicated that it will not send fighters or arms to Syria—for now.
Gulf states, Jordan and Egypt
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, and Egypt all fear a collapse of the Assad regime and a repeat of the 2010s: waves of refugees, ISIS, violent drug cartels, and Syria as a safespace for extremist groups that target Arab states and, eventually, the West.
In less than two years after normalizing ties with Assad, Arab states are now working behind the scenes with the US, Iran and Russia to try and prevent his fall.
Arab states are now finding themselves standing on opposite sides compared to 2011, when they provided material and financial support and training to rebel groups to topple Assad.
America’s challenge
With 900 troops and special forces by Al Tanf, a key region in southeastern Syria, ostensibly to fight ISIS, the US faces a dilemma posed by the rebel offensive. Will developments delay or accelerate the Trump Administration’s plans of drawing down US troops in Syria?
Will the Biden Administration attempt to use US forces block Iranian militias and arms from entering to Syria in order to prevent them from ending up in Hezbollah’s hands and used against Israel? Will the threat of ISIS taking advantage of power vacuums in Deir Ezzour and other pockets of Syria require the US to stay or even expand its mission? Or will it hasten the drawdown?
There are few good options and serious security risks for the US in staying, leaving or simply standing pat and doing nothing.
Both the outgoing Biden Administration and incoming Trump Administration face another dilemma: what to do with Assad. Despite overtures by Arab states and the US through intermediaries, Assad has not lessened its reliance and patronage from Iran and Russia. As reports indicate, the US may attempt to use this crisis and Assad’s moment of weakness to offer a lifeline in return for it leaving Iran’s sphere of influence. But will Assad bite?
What I’m watching
I am watching and listening to the messaging from a darkhorse player in Syria: Israel. For years, Israel has been operating freely in Syria, decapitating Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps leadership in the country with impunity—with the tact cover from Russia. It is clear that Arab states, Iran and Russia do not want Assad to fall. But with the risk of renewed war with Hezbollah, does Israel wish to see Assad teeter and fall so that it can once and for all cut off the flow of weapons to Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon, or does it fear more the fallout of Assad’s regime collapse?
As always, there are more questions than answers. Time will tell; it always does.
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The contents of this newsletter do not reflect the views of Taylor Luck's employers or affiliated organizations.
